All Eyes on the Job Market
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Filed under Private Money Articles
by Tim Krulia – Private Money Blueprint CFO
As part of our quest here at PMBP to give you the single best resource on the financial aspects of growing your real estate investing business (aka, we help people find private money quickly, easily, and abundantly)… here’s an article I found which is all about the job market and other economic news…
This coming week is packed full of big economics news with the “main event” coming on Friday when we get our February job’s report. This article is great because it lays out the economic indicator news that’s to be reported each day of this week. It also has a little nugget of info about what’s going on with Greece and their financial mess.
How’s this for great news!!!
On the upside, the fourth-quarter reporting period has been positive, with earnings jumping 201% from a year earlier and 16% from a year earlier without the financial sector. Last week’s revision to fourth-quarter GDP growth was better than expected, with the economy rising at a 5.9% annualized rate, the fastest pace in six years (Twin).
Even if the expert’s expectations for the reports this week are mixed; we’ve had something to be pretty happy about.
I’m still hoping that we’ll keep the unemployment rate under last month’s figures. If you look at the chart (below) of the past decade there is certainly a peak that’s forming right now.
I’m still super hopeful that this next round of unemployment numbers comes in lower than last month’s 9.7%. If bit by bit, the unemployment rate keeps trickling down (even if it’s just a 10th of a percent each month), this marginally good news COULD go from something only economics geeks like me blab about to mainstream excitement.
Let’s say over the next 90 days the unemployment rate keeps falling (even by the slightest of margins), the media will probably take hold of it and do what they do best; make mountains out of mole hills! I hope this all comes to pass because I could easily see the media reporting this “GREAT NEWS” (well, not really considering the unemployment rate would probably still be over 9%), and pound it into all our recovery hungry heads that the recession is over and it’s time to get back to spending!
Think about it, it would likely drive consumer confidence and we’d see recovery on both the consumer side and business side. Maybe it’s a bit artificial, but the spending could drive more job creation and drive us right on out of the current struggles.
As soon as this happens, we as investors will be happy to see mortgage applications increase, nudging housing demand back a little, thus increasing home values a bit. Interest rates would start to go back up a hair (but not necessarily for private money loans because we are independent of the dang banks, of course), banks would get a bit more profitable (great for Wall St.) and then POOF….we’re really truly on the road to recovery in the real estate market.
One other thing to note about my little hypothesis is that in this recovery relay race, we’d finally take the baton back from the government and they would be able to slowly retreat from all these expensive stimuli packages.
What do you think?
